Stockwave | Issue 54

Stockwave
  • Pent up tenant demand released
  • Stock levels fall from peak in early June
  • Glasgow posts annualised rental gain
  • Edinburgh’s decade long growth ends
  • Nuanced recovery profiles expected

Scottish Monthly Rent Analysis Q2 2019-Q2 2020

The stand out impact of the Covid 19 pandemic on the Scottish rental market remained the large uplift in available stock over Q2 2020. The unprecedented steep rise at the end of Q1 sent a great stock wave through the market over the course of Q2. Stock volumes at the national level peaked in early June before pent up demand was released sending volumes lower by quarter end. Regional variations are evident throughout the country and recoveries will have distinct local profiles but nationally a trajectory to normal stock levels has begun and could be realised as early as next quarter.

Time to Lets (TTLs) lengthened over the period in line with expectations but rent levels, whilst down in many regions, were not dramatically off-trend. It is likely that Q3 will show a truer picture of the market with many properties let in Q2 having been advertised at pre-pandemic levels.

Although impacted and concerns over tenant financial stress remains, the Scottish PRS is likely to experience a net boost to demand over supply compared to previous years if, as widely expected, the house purchase market becomes retained.

Scotland Average Stock Levels

Scotland

Average Rent (pcm) by Number of Bedrooms

Average Time To Let (TTL) by Number of Bedrooms

Citylets Rental Index - Scotland

YearQ1Q2Q3Q4
2008 100.0 101.6 102.8 100.2
2009 98.8 98.1 99.2 97.7
2010 98.9 101.4 100.6 99.8
2011 100.3 102.8 103.9 101.7
2012 102.9 104.2 105.0 104.0
2013 104.7 107.4 106.5 105.1
2014 108.4 112.1 114.1 113.5
2015 116.4 118.1 117.4 115.7
2016 118.9 120.5 120.2 114.6
2017 119.1 122.3 119.7 113.8
2018 120.9 123.9 122.3 119.5
2019 122.9 129.1 127.3 123.6
2020 125.7 130.9    

Market Composition

Households: Rented

Karen Turner

Karen Turner - Rettie & Co.

“The last few months have been challenging in a number of ways. In particular we have seen rents begin to drop slightly, with new listings having to be priced keenly to secure a let. Relets are holding their own for now. The introduction of video viewings and 3D tours has improved the offering for potential tenants and allowed the essential and future lets to be facilitated. This will continue to remain a key tool as we move slowly and carefully out of lockdown. The supply versus demand may see prices begin to drop. This we hope is short term before settling back down.”

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