Cap Trap? | Issue 65

People running after house
  • Scotland’s average rents rise 12.4% YOY
  • Rent freeze replaced with 3% - 6% cap
  • Difficulties reported by those seeking new tenancies
  • Double digit annual growth in most urban locations
  • Aberdeen reporting sustained strong demand

Scottish Monthly Rent Analysis Q1 2022-Q1 2023

Scotland’s PRS enjoyed relative calm in the first quarter of 2023 with some easing of pressure on landlords as mortgage rates drifted lower and the rent freeze was replaced with a 3% increase cap with discretionary scope for up to 6%. However material concerns for supply persist with Industry consensus that recent legislation, however well intent, will increasingly exacerbate the root causes of the problem.

It could be argued that it was the turn of administration which brought such rapid change to the residential lettings landscape to feel the pressure with an unexpected resignation of the First Minister as surprising and sudden as the manner of the introduction of the legislation.

Average rents in Scotland rose 12.4% Year on Year (YOY) in the first quarter of 2023 to average £1,007 per month with properties taking just 21 days to let. Keen competition for property to rent around the country persists evidenced by widespread double digit growth in rents and low time to lets.


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Scotland Average Stock Levels Q2 20 to Q1 23

Scotland

Average Rent (pcm) by Number of Bedrooms

Average Time To Let (TTL) by Number of Bedrooms

Citylets Rental Index - Scotland

YearQ1Q2Q3Q4
2008 100.0 101.6 102.8 100.2
2009 98.8 98.1 99.2 97.7
2010 98.9 101.4 100.6 99.8
2011 100.3 102.8 103.9 101.7
2012 102.9 104.2 105.0 104.0
2013 104.7 107.4 106.5 105.1
2014 108.4 112.1 114.1 113.5
2015 116.4 118.1 117.4 115.7
2016 118.9 120.5 120.2 114.6
2017 119.1 122.3 119.7 113.8
2018 120.9 123.9 122.3 119.5
2019 122.9 129.1 127.3 123.6
2020 125.7 130.9 134.1 128.1
2021 128.1 136.9 140.5 134.7
2022 138.9 150.4 152.1 150.7
2023 156.1      

Market Composition

Households: Rented

Karen Turner

Karen Turner - Rettie & Co.

“The rental market remains strong in Scotland. In the main, most properties are receiving high demand for viewings with several notes of interest coming off the back of the viewing. There is strong demand for student HMO properties but we are seeing limited notices coming from students, which would have been the norm at this time of year pre-Covid. The demand from renters is there but there is still not enough stock to satisfy the demand. We need to see positive action from government to encourage both landlords and corporate investors to enter the market and aid the housing supply to help increase the stock across all tenures.”

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